Poll Results

I learned a few things from the poll that has been open for the last 5 days:

1)
2) Never conduct a poll again. You guys are some lazy fucking bastards.

3) Of the people that actually did vote, the only consensus that was reached was that no one wants the Market Wrap to go away... which is nice.

Also, I am going to widen the publisher's deadline on the Market Wrap. By the time the market closes on Friday, I need to go see a movie or have a Caol Ila 12 years old (neat). Therefore, you can expect the Market Wrap any time between 2pm on Friday and midnight Sunday MST. That should give you blood sucking, non participating, lazy ass bastards plenty of solace when your precious watch lists don't come out immediately after the close on Friday. See you soon.

Please Vote

According to Statcounter.com, there have been at least 30 people on this blog over the last two or three days, but there have only been three votes cast (and one of them was mine).

I need some input folks. If you don't care what I do, great, cast your ballot and tell me. That is specifically why there is an "I could give a shit" selection.

Again, you can find the poll just to the left of this post. Thanks.

Joke of the Week

A businessman is getting ready to go on a long business trip. He knows his wife is always horny, so he decides to get her something to keep her occupied while he was gone, because he didn't much like the idea of her screwing someone else.

So he went to a store that sold sex toys and started looking around. He thought about a life-sized sex doll, but that was too close to another man for him. He was browsing through the dildos, looking for something special to please his wife, and started talking to the old man behind the counter. He explained his situation, to the old man.

"Well, I don't really know of anything that will do the trick. We have vibrating dildos, special attachments, and so on, but I don't know of anything that will keep her occupied for weeks, except …" said the old man, and then he stopped.

"Except what?" asked the businessman.

"Nothing, nothing," said the old man.

"C'mon, tell me! I need something!" protested the businessman.

"Well, sir, I don't usually mention this, but there is the 'voodoo dildo,'" the old man said.

"The voodoo dildo?" the businessman asked.

The old man reached under the counter, and pulled out an old wooden box carved with strange symbols. He opened it, and there lay a very ordinary-looking dildo. The businessman laughed, and said, "Big fucking deal. It looks like every other dildo in this shop!"

The old man said, "But you haven't seen what it'll do yet."

He pointed to a door and said "Voodoo dildo, the door."

The voodoo dildo rose out of its box, darted over to the door, and started screwing the keyhole. The whole door shook with the vibrations, and a crack developed down the middle. Before the door could split, the old man said, "Voodoo dildo, box!"

The voodoo dildo stopped, floated back to the box and lay there, motionless.

The businessman said, "I'll take it!"

The guy took it home to his wife, told her it was a special dildo and that to use it, all she had to do was say, "Voodoo dildo, my pussy."

He left for his trip satisfied things would be fine while he was gone.

After he'd been gone a few days, the wife was unbearably horny. She thought of several people who would willingly satisfy her, but then she remembered the voodoo dildo. She lay down, placed the box between her legs, and said "Voodoo dildo, my pussy!" The voodoo dildo shot to her crotch and started pumping. It was great, like nothing she'd ever experienced before.

After three orgasms, she decided she'd had enough, and tried to pull it out, but it was stuck in her, still thrusting. She tried and tried to get it out, but nothing worked. Her husband had forgot to tell her how to shut it off! So she decided to go to the hospital to see if they could help. She put her clothes on, got in the car and started to drive to the hospital, quivering with every thrust of the dildo. On the way, another orgasm nearly made her swerve off the road, and she was pulled over by a policeman. He asked for her license, and then asked how much she'd had to drink. Gasping and twitching, she explained that she hadn't been drinking, but that a voodoo dildo was stuck in her pussy, and wouldn't stop screwing her.

The officer looked at her for a second, and then said, "Yeah, right. Voodoo dildo, my ass!"

Masterpiece Theatre

In attempts to make up for my last movie blunder I picked what I thought would be a safe bet. This week's movie was Vantage Point. I don't know anything about the writer or director of the movie, but the cast is pretty decent. I'm not too big on Dennis Quaid (in fact I often confuse him with Bill Paxton and Bill Pullman), but Forest Whitaker was top notch as always.

It was a pretty intense movie with an engaging plot line. The director used a lot of hand-held camera work a la Saving Private Ryan. If you enjoy a Usual Suspects plot line... that is, I have no clue what's going on, and towards the end all of the twists come together... you should enjoy this movie.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 8

THE TAPE:
DOW: +33 (+0.25%)
S&P: +3 (+0.22%)
NASDAQ: -18 (-0.71%)
RUSSELL: -6 (-0.84%)

THE STORY:

There really is no story here. I suppose the only item of note would be the tremendous late Friday rally. It looked like we were going to break the recently mentioned triangle to the downside for the majority of Friday until the last 30 minute rally by the bulls which kept the pattern intact. Take a look at some S&P charts:


Now zoomed in to a 5 day chart:



As far as charts for next week, we are still looking at quite a few triangles. The next list is comprised of stocks that have already broken, but are retesting for support/resistance levels for low risk re-entry/adds:

ADM, AEM, BVN, EDU, GOLD, NOV, YUM

The following are stocks that we are still patiently waiting on:

BCE, BCR, DIA, IWM, LM, LRCX, QQQQ, SPY, SWK

Lastly, I want to talk about MYGN for the final time. I took profits on this triangle play a couple of days ago right at the bottom. This will be our prime example of a descending triangle moving forward. Take a look at the charts:



Now zoomed in:


Final topic(s):

Moving into next week, lets just be patient and wait for a break in the major markets to pick a bias. Let me stress the word patient again... go back up and look at the chart from Friday on the S&P. If you go all in too early and get whipped out, its going to hurt, and then you are going to be too timid to get in on the real break and will miss out on quite a bit of profit.

I noticed a spike in user volume on Friday. This tells me that there are quite a few people interested in my Market Wrap posts. I would like to hear from you in the comments section. Whatever you want to learn/talk about is important for this particular topic. I will try my hand at an online poll, but until then let me know your thoughts. Thanks.

*UPDATE*
The online poll is open until next Thursday. Please only vote once so there is no skew in the results. You can find the poll on the left side of the blog under the "about me" section.

Joke of the Week

One day Mom is cleaning Junior's room and
finds a kinky S&M magazine. She hides it
until dad gets home and shows it to him.
"What should we do about this?" she asks.
"Well, I don't think you should spank him."

Single Malt Archives

The Juice: Ardbeg 10 year old

This Islay malt has been named the official 2008 World Whiskey of the year by Jim Murray in his annual Whiskey Bible. They were open for over 150 years before they had to close the doors in the early '80s. In 1997 the distillery was re-opened in full force with the financial backing of Glenmorangie. It is one of the "Big 3" distilleries in South Islay.

The Notes:

Color: Pale straw
Nose: Peat smoke, soot, light apple or lime, floral notes
Palate: tar, leather, peat
Finish: Peat smoke, soot

The Verdict: 8.5/10

I don't know that there is such a thing as too much smoke, but if there is, its in this bottle. It is much heavier than Caol Ila, especially in the nose. Try it with an aged cheddar or nice cigar if you want to cut a little bit of the smoke. However, if you are like me, you want all the smoke you can get. Throw about 5 drops of water in there and it will release some of those aromas. Ardbeg has a lifetime pass in the rotation, and will always be available in my bar.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 7

THE TAPE:
DOW +166 (+1.42%)
S&P +19 (+1.41%)
NASDAQ +17 (+0.77%)
RUSSELL +3 (+0.43%)

THE STORY:

This week we had a pretty volatile range because of two loudmouth guys. First, Warren Buffett came out and declared that he was backing bond issuers and offered stops to the credit market. That sent the market higher. Second was good ol' Jackass. He finally admitted (in public) that the economy may be a little worse than he had originally thought. That sent the market lower. He followed that up with a virtual guarantee on the March Fed meetings resulting in another rate cut.

Interesting though... last month, if he said ANYTHING about potential future rate cuts, the DOW would have gone up 200-300 points in about 5 minutes. This week, it was the beginning of the end of the "Buffett Rally". I think The Street has finally decided that his bark and his bite are both pretty weak.

From a technical standpoint, we now have some ideas to support the retest and possible break of prior lows. Take a look at the DOW.So we have a pretty nice consolidation over the last couple of weeks and the triangle is shaping up pretty nicely. Triangles can be used to forecast future moves by time and distance. On the same chart (zoomed in), take a look at the last time we had a triangle that broke down:

You will find that, most of the time, when a major index sets up in a certain pattern or trend, it is reflected in individual stocks as well. Here are some triangles to watch for the next week or so. I have left the charts out because of the length of the list: ADM, BCE, BVN, CMI, CTRP, FNM, FRE, GILD, GLD, HANS, HOS, ITC, JEC, LM, LRCX, NOV, NUE, PDGI, SLB, STJ, SWK, YUM.

Since we have talked about MYGN for the last couple of weeks, I thought it appropriate continue the follow up. For those who took profit, congrats. For those waiting for the next level... well... take a look:



At the next support area, I am most likely going to shed at least half my position, if not take the whole thing to the bank. That area of support represents the target price for the triangle that prompted the trade in the first place.

You will also notice that GLD is in the list above. If you have been frustrated that you have missed prior moves in the metal, perhaps a break of the pattern would be an appropriate entry point.

A Letter From Jason Statham

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

Joke of the Week

A woman was in bed with her lover when she heard her husband opening the front door. “Hurry!” she said. “Stand in the corner.” She quickly rubbed baby oil all over him and then she dusted him with talcum powder. “Don’t move until I tell you to,” she whispered. “Just pretend you’re a statue.”

“What’s this, honey?” the husband inquired as he entered the room. “Oh, it’s just a statue,” she replied nonchalantly. “The Smith’s bought one for their bedroom. I liked it so much, I got one for us, too.” No more was said about the statue, not even later that night when they went to sleep.

Around two o’ clock in the morning the husband got out of bed, went to the kitchen and returned a while later with a sandwich and a glass of milk. “Here,” he said to the ‘statue,’ “Eat something. I stood like an idiot at the Smiths’ for three days, and nobody offered me so much as a glass of water.”

Single Malt Archives

The Juice: Caol Ila 12 year old

For more than 100 years small coal-fired “puffers” like the SS Pibroch brought barley, coal and empty casks to the distillery, returning the whisky to the mainland through the strait that divides Islay and Jura, the Sound of Islay – in Gaelic, “Caol Ila” (cull eela). The distillery was founded in 1846, but now 11 men do the work that 32 used to do.

The Notes:

Color: Pale straw
Nose: Citrus, coal smoke, olive oil
Palate: Light sweetness, salt, smoke
Finish: Sweet smoke, slightly sour, coal

The Verdict: 9.0/10

This could quite possibly be "the one". At first, I wasn't expecting much, but was blown away by the quality. This is most likely the result of juxtaposition between presupposed expectation and reality. It is one of the heavier Islays, so be careful if you decide to give this one a go. Caol Ila has cemented its place in the rotation and will be a regular on the bar for years.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 6

The Tape:
DOW -561 (-4.44%)
S&P -64 (-4.68%)
NASDAQ -109 (-4.76%)
RUSSELL -32 (-4.33%)

The Story:
First, I must apologize for last week's post. I was running behind and was about 8 fingers into a nice bottle of Caol Ila (review pending). I wasn't quite up to the task of analysis or too much chart review, but this week I hope to remedy that.

If you look at the chart of the DOW from last week, you will see the defined level of resistance the market was up against. It did not fail to hold. If it is the jury's pleasure, I present Exhibit A:

We came off of that high like a waterfall didn't we? Now, you may want some kind of story or analysis as to why this happened. Let me put it this way. If I need to tell you, you haven't been reading my Market Wrap posts very thoroughly and you need a review.

Congratulations to anyone who has taken the MYGN short/put trade. It has turned out nicely. You will find some thoughts on Exhibit B:
So, February (not to mention the whole year to date) has been a dog so far. I'm not planning on seeing any improvements in the near term. Jackass has put himself in quite a position. The Fed Funds Rate has pretty much been cut in half over the last six months, and he doesn't have too much more room to go before he is giving away money for free. Don't get me wrong... we will see another 50 basis point cut in March, but it is dangerous to go too far. Wall Street knows this, so future cuts may not be met with a week of frenzied buying the way they have in the last couple of months. February will most likely see some more selling followed by consolidation followed by more selling followed by et cetera, et cetera. Since we are planning on that (right or wrong) here are a few charts to watch in the coming weeks.







Click the charts if you are having a tough time reading the notes.

As always, owning gold (GLD, GDX) is a good idea (I will say it until it hits $1000/oz). If you are looking at any charts or have ideas, I would love to hear about them. I may even highlight them on next weeks Market Wrap.

Joke of the Week

So a baby seal walks into a club...



I'm sorry. I'm so sorry.

A Begrudgingliy Congratulatory Post

Congratulations (cough) to the (sniff) New York Giants, who last night, upset the rather heavily favored New England Chowds to win the Super Bowl. I was torn during the game because of my two hates. Hate 1) Anything Boston. Hate 2) The'72 Dolphins. In short, I wanted the Giants to win because I despise just about everything in Boston, but I wanted the Patriots to win because I can't stand those old bastards who celebrate the final undefeated team's first loss. So the game was bitter-sweet.

That said, it was one of the best NFL games I have watched in a long time. The only real problem I had with the game was the half-time show. I mean, seriously, how long is this knee jerk reaction to a nipple ring going to last? Who will it be next year? The Monkeys? Enough with the endless string of "Old Man River" performers. Give me something contemporary at least. I'm not asking to watch 50 Cent snort lines of cocaine off a stripper's ass (though that would certainly be entertaining). I just want someone who was popular AFTER my dad graduated high school.

But I digress. So (puke) congratulations to the (puke) Giants (puke).

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 5

THE TAPE:
DOW +536 (+4.39%)
S&P +65 (4.86%)
NASDAQ +87 (+3.74%)
RUSSELL +42 (6.07%)

THE STORY:
This week was a seemingly futile buying frenzy in this author's opinion. Now, I could be DEAD wrong, but according to statistical analysis on Kohler's blog, we are in for a little bit more selling. I will let his blog tell the potential story this week.


Gold (GDX, GLD) has been holding up nicely. We are still waiting on LM, while MYGN is still in selling range. Take a look at the DOW (and other general markets) for resistance potential.