Sunday, March 2, 2008

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 9

THE TAPE:
DOW: -115 (-0.94%)
S&P: -23 (-1.65%)
NASDAQ: -32 (-1.36%)
RUSSELL: -9 (-1.28%)

THE STORY:

Every economic announcement that was released reflected what we already know: bad things. Ol' Jackass talked to congress for a while and pretty much told them what I have already told you... another 50 basis points in March. All you homeowners (if you have equitable room) may want to think about refinancing this summer. We probably have 2 more cuts coming after this one. He also talked about stagflation worries... which we also already knew. Oil broke $100, commodities are through the roof, and gold is up to $975. The problem comes in when I say those prices are going up and the value of the $$$$ continues to fall.


The GREAT news is that we know how to profit when everyone else is miserable, and we have what appears to be some pretty clear direction. The triangles I have been talking about for the last couple of weeks are becoming decisive. Take a look at two time frames on the S&P:

Also, take a look at LM. We have talked about this one for a least a month now. Talk about a clear break...
Feel free to jump on that train any time. It could take a while, I am looking at about a $47 price target on this one, which matches up with lows from 2004. Happy selling (or buying puts) this next week(s). Take a look at last weeks watch lists for some bearish ideas. A relatively low cost, semi-conservative play would be on the index ETFs. Those are QQQQ, DIA, SPY, and IWM.

Manage risk. That is all that matters.

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