From the Library...

I have, due to some light prodding by a lawyer over the last few years, started the journey through Stephen King's The Dark Tower series. I finished book one about two weeks ago, and I'll say this: I am going to need some more prodding to continue the story. Now I'm just a nit-wit amateur bibliophile, but I am going to say that the first book, The Gunslinger, fell flat on its fat ass.


That said, I feel that it is incumbent upon me to treat the first book as nothing more than a shoddy prologue, and at least see where this thing goes in the second installment. At this point, there is no recommendation, nor is there a warning regarding this book. I simply believe that I have not gone far enough to dole too much praise or criticism today.

I will return with a future post regarding the next book in the series.

Also on the docket: Confessions of an Economic Hitman, by John Perkins.

Joke of the Week

Perhaps this post should be re-titled "The Funny Shit of the Week" seeing as how this is not necessarily a joke. Nevertheless, enjoy!

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 4

THE TAPE:
DOW +107 (+0.8%)
S&P +5 (+0.4%)
NASDAQ -14 (-0.6%)
RUSSELL +15 (+2.2%)

THE STORY:
There was huge range with week. The DOW whipped around to the tune of 852 points.

Two major reasons sparked the volatility: 1) A global panic sell off was created over MLK day as a result of banking fraud in... you guessed it... France. 2) Jackass cut a major chunk out of the fed funds rate, slashing it by 75 basis points, sending stocks higher. This hasn't been done since Dad was paying 18% on his house in the early 80's.

Some people think that we have hit a bottom in the downtrend. Morons, all of them. The fed meets again next week for their "scheduled rate cut" where we should get another 25 basis points or so. I'm quite convinced that this will disappoint and we will see more selling next week. February will probably see some basing and consolidation... but we will cross that bridge when we get there.

Congratulations for anyone who decided to take the gold (GLD, GDX) trade and made some money over the past week. $1000 is just around the corner. Know it. Own it. We are still waiting on LM, while MYGN broke down last week. After last weeks strength (however mild it was) we have some great entries for shorting the market.

Keep an eye on: BHI, GOOG, CX, SWK, MTB, LTM, LIFC, NILE,

Joke of the Week

"Can you explain to me how this lipstick got on your collar?" a suspicious wife asked.
"No, I can't," the husband replied, "I distinctly remember taking my shirt off."

Masterpiece Theatre

On Saturday, I went to a movie with Benjamin. I/We take quite a bit of pride in movie selection ability. This week, it was In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale. This particular selection was a "no brainer" based on the dark ages fantasy setting, as well as the stellar cast. With names like Jason Statham and John Rhys Davies, it is tough to go wrong. That said...

THAT MOVIE WAS HORRIBLE!

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 3

THE TAPE:
DOW -515 (-4.09%)
S&P -77 (-5.5%)
NASDAQ -99 (-4.1%)
RUSSELL -31 (-4.5%)

THE STORY:
Last week I talked about the credit and housing problems that are taking quite a toll on the market. I also said that it would take time to finish out the cycle (months... or years) and that no amount of rate slashing by Jackass or any other program would help. This, I would love to brag, was proven today as President Bush delivered a message to the press about a $145 billion "stimulus plan". As the speech began, the DOW was UP about 180 points. By the time the speech was over, the DOW was in negative territory and eventually closed down. It is pretty clear that the institutional money managers understand the limitations of governmental ability to force economic change.

We also received another "shoe drop" this week as Citigroup (C) wrote down a $20 billion loss, which turns out to be the largest loss in history for a bank. Also, large bond issuers are being investigated. Here are the nuts folks: the earnings reports and economic releases that have been coming out so far this year have been met with tags like "...hasn't been this bad since 2001" or "...our largest percentage drop since 2002".

Given the fundamental parallels to the 2001-02 and 1987 bear markets, the following are bad ideas:
1) Trying to pick a bottom.
2) Listening to Jim Cramer.
3) Watching CNBC.
4) Reading analyst reports.

Ignore all that shit. They are going to fill your head with "its at a great value now" and "we may have found a bottom". Yeah, just like $90, then $75, then $50, then $5 was a value for Enron. They tell you to buy the shit because they need someone to sell it to.

Next week, keep an eye on Legg Mason (LM), Myriad Genetics (MYGN). Both of them have created pretty strong levels of support ($68 and $44 respectively). They are also forming some text book descending triangles. Be patient. Wait for the break. Then short the shit out of 'em. Remember those gold (GDX, GLD) ideas as well.




Lastly, if you need A REASON TO NOT LISTEN TO ANALYSTS, I present: Harley Davidson (HOG).

Joke of the Week

A pirate walks into a bar with a steering wheel on his crotch.
The bartender says, "Do you know you have a steering wheel on your crotch?"
The pirate says, "Argh, it's drivin' me nuts!"

Single Malt Archives

The Juice: Bowmore 12 year old

Bowmore can be found on the Loch Indaal side of the Isle of Islay (eye-la). Established in 1779, Bowmore is one of the oldest distilleries in Scotland, and the oldest in Islay. They have adhered to the old traditions of producing their own floor malted barley, turning it laboriously with a large wooden shovel.

The Notes:

Color: light amber
Nose: honey, putty, subtle lemon
Palate: peat, malt, slightly oily
Finish: long smoke, hints of citrus

The Verdict: 6.5/10

This one is deceptively light in the nose for an Islay, but the palate is pleasant and a bit of a monster. It is one of the lesser Islay Malts in my opinion, which probably makes it a decent one for beginners. Bowmore will most likely play a very small roll in the rotation henceforth. I wouldn't mind having a bottle on hand, but I probably will not be going out of my way to get it.

Market Wrap- 2008 Week 2

THE TAPE:
DOW -200 (-1.5%)
S&P -11 (-.75%)
NASDAQ -65 (-2.5)
RUSSELL -17 (-2.4)

THE STORY:
If I had been blogging for the last year, you would have seen some posts back in late Q1 that talked about the sub-prime story. There were smaller companies that were going bankrupt left and right (LEND, NEW). It then morphed into a monster story in the middle of Q3 when the sub-prime issue trickled UP to the big boys. Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER), Capital One (COF), JP Morgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) have had capital equity losses ranging from 20-50% since July . Countrywide (CFC) has dropped about 80% in the same time frame. Between Q3 and today, we have been waiting for the "other shoe to drop." If you take a look, you can see an entire closet full of "other shoes" (the most recent being today's $15 BILLION write down by MER). The entire financial sector (XLF) has been hammered.




It seems like every week, there is another dip shit analyst that is talking about "further concern over the sup-prime and credit issues." Further concerns? These guys are complete assholes. The concerns started back in the beginning of 2007, and they will continue until the cycle runs its course. It isn't news worthy when another analyst wakes up and smells the bear market. The people who were stupid enough to buy a home way over their pay-grade, and the companies stupid enough to let them, will all have to try to dig themselves out of the grave. This will continue to have huge implications in the market.

Think about it for a moment. How would you dig yourself out of this situation? You bought a house and the payment fit your budget... barely. Then two years later, your rates are adjusted and your payment goes up by $800. You can't refinance because you already did that last year to pay for Christmas. You can't sell it because it has been devalued by $10k since the housing market dip. Where does the other $800 come from. It comes from your gym membership, your clothing fund, your video games, movies and music. It comes from the $50 per night restaurant you love so much. Forget about the renovation on the bathroom upstairs. What matters now is that you can STAY in the house... not fix it up.

Now take all of the money you aren't spending on those items and multiply it by 25 million people. We are talking about billions (if not trillions) of dollars that will not be going to Crocks Shoes (CROX), Lowes (LOW), and PF Changs (PFCB). Mix that in with Bernake making further inflationary decisions, and $100 oil (OIH), you have a dying market with no currency value. IT IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME (or Mexico is actually going to have to pay back the money we let them "borrow" over the last 65 years... whichever happens first).

The flight to quality continues to grow with gold (GLD, GDX) prices breaking $900 per ounce. This is an indicator that big money players are heading for cover. I am betting on $1000/oz by the beginning of Q2. Corporate write downs continue and consumer confidence numbers keep falling. If you are bullish on the market, stop it.

Joke of the Week

A traveling salesman knocks on a door.
A five-year-old answers smoking a cigar and drinking a scotch.
The salesman asks, "Excuse me, son, are your parents home?"
The kid says, "What do you fucking think?"

And the Award Goes to...

2007 AWARDS




DRINKING BUDDY OF THE YEAR: Benjamin. We started down a dangerous road when we discovered the greatness of single malt scotch. What an experience.

LIFETIME SERVICE AWARD (longest friend): Again Benjamin. 1988 was three weeks ago.

NEWCOMER AWARD - COOLEST NEWEST FRIEND? Tough one, but the award goes to Batzel. He has opened a lot of doors for me this year. Until I met him, I didn't know that business meetings took place at the strip club. Also considered: Brandon Armstrong

HIGH POINT OF THE YEAR? On April 7th I got married to my Brandi. Also considered: Vegas (Brandi took me and Adam joined us).

LOW POINT OF THE YEAR? Even though 2007 could go down as the best year of my life to date, the award goes to the small stretch of time that I was virtually alone in Utah.

BEST HOLIDAY? Christmas kicked so much ass this year. Great gifts and fellowship all around. Also considered: Thanksgiving

YOUR SONG FOR 2007: Black Magic Woman. Thank you Guitar Hero 3. Also considered: Benny Lava.

MOVIE FOR 2007? This was a close one. Transformers. Also considered: Harry Potter.

BEST RELATIONSHIP? Brandi gets this one for all of the reasons a wife should.

BEST BUY? High definition TV.

RESTAURANT OF THE YEAR? Sensi at the Bellagio in Vegas. Best dining experience I have ever had. Again, with Brandi and Adam. Also considered: Uno's in Denver.

KISS OF THE YEAR? That time when Bandit actually got his tongue IN Ben's mouth.

BEST DECISION MADE THIS YEAR? Marriage.

WHAT ARE YOUR PLANS FOR NEXT YEAR? Some European travel. Client and portfolio growth. A little bit of weight loss.

MOST STUPID IDEA WHEN DRUNK? Benjamin drove a little bit after his Fat Chick comment.

TV SHOW OF THE YEAR? Southpark takes it by a mile.

VIDEO GAME OF THE YEAR? Assassin's Creed was unbelievable. Also considered: Tomb Raider Anniversary and Guitar Hero 3

MOST LOYAL FRIEND? See LIFETIME SERVICE AWARD.

BIGGEST CHANGE OF THE YEAR? Marriage.

BIGGEST DOUCHEBAG AWARD? Co-award winners Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman can been seen making bad decisions all year in 2008 as well. Also considered: Robert Jordan for dying.

WORST NEW WORD AWARD? "Fetch" as opposed to "fuck". Thank you to the Mormon's for reminding us that it is not the words we speak but the spirit in which we speak them.

Welcome to the Pub

I have decided to come back to the world of the blog. The wife has been trying to get me to do this for months, and in rare fashion I have submitted. The rules of the new blog are simple. Whatever I want is what you get. I will not adopt Rome's "more of me and less of you is good for this show" mentality. However, every day is "zero tolerance Friday" here at The Pub. If I see something I don't like, any and all dissenters will be taken to the public square and shot. Sweep the leg. No mercy.

The flip side of that coin is one of endless glory... not the Mormon kind. This glory will be a Wall of Fame of sorts. Great input, ideas, and commentary will be lauded and praised for centuries to come. I'll have to find a way to create said Wall though.

Topics will range from trading to whatever the hell else I want to talk about. In order to stay consistent, I will be implementing "... of the week" posts. Joke of the week, quote of the week, etc. Feel free to submit ideas for these as we go.

So grab a pint of Guiness or a dram of your favorite Islay 16 year, and join me in The Pub, where the best conversations and debates occur.